Artificial Intelligence in Geopolitics: Arms Race, Ethics, and the Global Landscape
- Mar 10
- 5 min read
Updated: Mar 18
An Accessible Guide to AI’s Role in Military and Market Dynamics
Introduction: AI’s Growing Influence in Global Affairs
The accelerating development of artificial intelligence (AI) is profoundly affecting geopolitics, defence strategies, and global markets. As AI technologies become more ubiquitous and advance faster than our biological or societal evolution, they can seem almost magical — bringing both opportunities and challenges. This article explores AI’s role in the modern arms race, ethical dilemmas, and the complex interplay between technology, industry, and international competition following an expert panel dicusssion on RBC TV Episode "AI in Geopolitics".
Expert Panel: Voices from Technology and Political Science
This discussion draws on insights from a panel hosted by RBC, featuring anchors Andrey Levchenko, Vita Lakhova, and Oleg Yanovsky—lecturer in Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and managing partner of the Aiton Foundation. Later, Pavel Golosov, Director of the Institute of Social Sciences at the Presidential Academy, and Loran Jacobs, Ph.D., founder of Pavlov AI Systems, join the conversation, providing further depth and expertise.
Clarifying Key Technologies
Autonomous Targeting refers to AI systems capable of identifying and selecting military targets without direct human intervention. For example, project Maven, initially developed by Google, used machine learning to analyse drone footage and automatically detect objects of interest, such as vehicles or personnel, for military operations.
Agent-Based Reality Technologies are AI models that simulate interactions among multiple autonomous agents (software entities), allowing for complex decision-making and scenario analysis. Such technologies underpin modern AI systems used in logistics, surveillance, and strategic planning.
Maven Project is a US Department of Defense initiative aimed at integrating AI into military operations, specifically for processing vast amounts of video data. The project’s goal was to assist in identifying potential threats more efficiently, but it sparked controversy over ethical concerns, leading Google to withdraw and Palantir to take over aspects of its development.
AI in Military : Real-World Examples and the Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Geopolitics
AI’s application in warfare is no longer theoretical. During ongoing regional conflictс both autonomous targeting and AI-driven data analysis have become central to military strategy. Armed forces reportedly use AI tools to select and prioritise targets. This mirrors earlier testing of autonomous systems in the Persian Gulf, where AI was used to simulate strike operations and optimise resource deployment.
Similarly, the use of AI in the Maven project has influenced how military analysts process reconnaissance data, reducing human workload and potentially improving accuracy. However, these advances raise significant ethical questions about accountability and civilian harm, especially when AI systems make decisions independently.
Ethical Issues: the Accountability of leveraging Artificial Intelligence in Geopolitics
The militarisation of AI has led to an arms race, affecting not only defence but also energy and nuclear industries due to the immense computational requirements. The central ethical dilemma is whether AI should be allowed to make life-and-death decisions, such as launching missiles or drones, without human oversight. For instance, Anthropic declined to grant full autonomy to its AI systems for military strikes and refused to use its technology for domestic surveillance—decisions that led to tensions with the US Department of Defense.
There are reports suggesting that some civilian infrastructure has been damaged as a result of decisions made entirely by AI, highlighting the risks of delegating military judgment to machines. While AI can calculate collateral damage and military effectiveness, the lack of human accountability remains a critical concern.
Market Dynamics: Companies, Contracts, and Investment Trends
The competition for lucrative government contracts is fierce among AI firms. Anthropic, Palantir, and OpenAI are major players vying for multi-million-dollar deals with the Pentagon. For example, Anthropic received a $200 million contract, while OpenAI’s solutions have been integrated into military planning and decision-making. Palantir, founded by Peter Thiel, has developed proprietary AI models for defence applications and has close ties to US political leadership. Leading AI figures, including Dr. Loran Jacobs, note the dangeroulsly unrestricted nature of such collaborations between the booming AI-industry and natioanl governments.
The venture capital landscape has also shifted. Since 2021, the “American Dynamism” programme has redirected investment in Silicon Valley towards military and dual-use AI technologies, echoing the post-Manhattan Project era. According to Bank of America, 23% of institutional investors recently cited AI as the top investment risk, up from 9% two months prior—reflecting both excitement and uncertainty in the sector. Meanwhile, prominent figures like Elon Musk have seen significant wealth increases due to successful AI ventures.
Resource Challenges: Supply Chains and Microelectronics
The global AI industry is heavily dependent on microelectronics and rare materials. Recent disruptions in supply chains, such as a shortage of helium needed for chip manufacturing, have affected South Korean producers and raised concerns about data centre capacity. Trade tensions between China and the US over rare earth metals have further complicated access to essential resources. As Pavel Golosov notes, maintaining reliable supply chains and re-establishing trust as a supplier are vital for stability in the international market.
GG
Global Competition: US, China, and Beyond
AI is a technology of control, and global competition is intensifying. While the US promotes its values and technological standards worldwide, China is rapidly advancing its own AI and energy capabilities. The strategic rivalry extends to space exploration, underwater technologies, and the Arctic, with each nation seeking to secure resources and technological leadership.
In the US, both Republican and Democratic stakeholders invest heavily in AI, aggregating data from diverse sources—including satellite and ground-based systems. China’s efforts to control rare earth supply chains and microelectronics production demonstrate the multi-faceted nature of the technological race.
Future Outlook: Stability, Autonomy, and Technological Evolution
Despite market fluctuations and supply chain crises, experts agree that AI technology is resilient and will continue to evolve. The industry is moving toward greater autonomy, with distributed agents capable of transforming human capabilities. However, as Loran Jacobs points out, the lack of regulation and accountability in military AI remains a concern. He indicated that some countries, guided by military doctrines prioritising soldier safety, justify the use of AI for defence. Ultimately, the trajectory of AI will depend on ethical frameworks, resource availability, and global cooperation.
"When a technology becomes truly planetary and advances at a rate encompassing our own evolution, it begins to seem like magic. For some, it spells light, and for others - darkness." — Loran Jacobs
Conclusion: Navigating the Challenges and Opportunities of AI
AI’s integration into geopolitics, defence, and industry is reshaping the global landscape. While the technology promises increased efficiency and strategic advantage, it also brings ethical dilemmas, market volatility, and resource challenges. The future will require balancing innovation with accountability, ensuring that AI serves humanity’s best interests in an increasingly interconnected and competitive world.
